Oil use will remain subdued over remainder of 2025: IEA

Paris [France], October 16: Global oil demand saw in the third quarter of 2025 growth rebound to 750 kb/d y-o-y from the second quarter's 420 kb/d pace, when consumption was weighed down by tariff turmoil, especially for LPG/ethane feedstocks that posted a rare contraction, according to the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for October. Still, oil use will remain subdued over the remainder of 2025 and in 2026, resulting in annual gains forecast at around 700 kb/d in both years.
Third-quarter gains are largely in line with our annual growth forecast of around 700 kb/d in both 2025 and 2026. Despite recent sluggish growth, the petrochemical sector will reassume its position in the driving seat of oil demand growth, as subpar economic conditions, increasing vehicle efficiencies and strong EV sales make for strong headwinds for road transport fuels, the monthly report noted.
Total global oil supply rose by 760 kb/d m-o-m, to 108 mb/d in September, as OPEC+ production surged by 1 mb/d led by the Middle East. World oil supply is on track to rise by 3 mb/d to 106.1 mb/d this year and 2.4 mb/d next year. Non-OPEC+ adds 1.6 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina. OPEC+ adds 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d next year based on the current production agreement, it said.
Refinery runs will rise by 600 kb/d in 2025 and 460 kb/d in 2026, to 83.5 mb/d and 84 mb/d, respectively. Refining margins increased across the board in September, led by improved diesel and jet fuel cracks following the disruption to Russian refining and exports.
Global observed inventories rose by a further 17.7 mb in August to a four-year high of 7 909 mb, as a 36.2 mb build in products was partly offset by an 18.5 mb decline in global crude, NGLs and feedstocks. OECD total inventories rose by 22 mb, non-OECD by 4 mb, supported by rising Chinese crude inventories, while oil on water dropped 8 mb. Preliminary data for September show sharply higher oil stocks, led by a 102 mb build in oil on water.
Source: Emirates News Agency