World merchandise trade posts strong growth in Q1 ahead of tariff hikes: WTO

Geneva [Switzerland], July 16: The volume of world merchandise trade rose 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 as imports surged in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs in the United States, latest WTO data show. Merchandise trade volume growth in the first quarter was stronger than the WTO's most recent forecast, but WTO economists expect the pace of expansion to slow later in the year as fully stocked inventories and higher tariffs weigh on import demand.
The new tariffs announced by the United States on 2 April at the start of the second quarter were widely anticipated, allowing importers to move purchases forward to avoid paying higher duties at a later date.
There were significant disparities across regions in merchandise trade volume growth in the first quarter, especially on the import side. North America recorded the strongest quarter-on-quarter import growth of any region by far at 13.4%, followed by Africa at 5.1%, South and Central America and the Caribbean at 3.6%, the Middle East at 3.0%, Europe at 1.3%, and Asia at 1.1%. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain associate and former member states, was the only region to record a decline in the first quarter at -0.5%. On the export side, the Middle East recorded the strongest quarter-on-quarter growth at 6.3%, followed by Asia at 5.6%, South America at 3.2%, Africa at 2.5%, Europe at 1.9% and North America at 1.8%. The CIS region also registered an export decline of -1.0% in the first quarter.
In terms of product category, the strongest performance was in office and telecom equipment (+16% year-on-year), followed by chemicals (+12%) and clothing (+7%). Among the product categories shown, only automotive products (-4%), fuels and mining products (-4%; of which: fuels -7%) and iron and steel (-3%) decreased in value terms. While fuel prices changed little compared with the same quarter in the previous year, prices for metals and minerals (excluding gold & silver) were 8% higher.
Africa had the strongest merchandise export growth of any region in value terms in the first quarter, up 9% year-on-year. The increase was led by gold, ores, cocoa, and copper, while fuel shipments declined. It was followed by Asia (up 5%, led by precious metals and machinery) and South and Central America (up 4%, with increases in precious metals, ores and coffee/tea, and declines in fuels, oil seeds, and cereals). Among WTO regions, only the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)2 saw its exports decline (-6%).
On the import side, strong year-on-year increases were observed in North America (+19%) and South America (+12%).
Source: Emirates News Agency